Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures posted 6 to 9 1/4 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday, with soon to expire July up 13 1/2 cents. USDA raised their old crop corn carryout estimate by 145 mbu to 2.34 bbu, on a cut to several demand categories. They reduced their export projection to 2.1 bbu, down 100 mbu. As expected, they used acreage numbers from the June 28 report, leaving projected yield at 166 bpa. That caused a 195 mbu jump in new crop production to 13.875 bbu. New crop ending stocks were raised by 335 mbu to 2.01 bbu. The world table raised Argentina’s corn crop at 51 MMT. Brazil was left at 101 MMT by USDA, with CONAB bringing their number up another 1.4 to 98.5 MMT. World carryout for 18/19 was up 2.82 MMT to 328.75 MMT, with new crop going opposite of expectations, up 8.4 MMT to 298.82 MMT. The weekly Export Sales report this morning showed an improvement to old crop corn bookings in the week of July 4, at 505,396 MT. That was 6-week high and 25.69% larger than the same week last year.

JUL 19 Corn closed at $4.47 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Corn closed at $4.44 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $4.48, up 8 1/2 cents

MAR 20 Corn closed at $4.54 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures saw moderate 3 to 5 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday. Nearby July soybean meal was up $2.50/ton, with soy oil up 10 points. The monthly WASDE from USDA showed 18/19 soybean ending stocks down 20 mbu from June at 1.05 bbu. Most of that was an increase to residual use. Production for 2019 was slashed by 305 mbu to 3.845 bbu this morning. That came via the drop in acreage shown on June 28 and a 1 bpa reduction to yield at 48.5 bpa. New crop carryout is back below the 1 bbu mark, being trimmed by 250 mbu to 795. World ending stocks saw very few adjustments for 18/19 to 112.98 MMT (+0.18), with new crop down a sharp 8.13 to 104.53 MMT primarily on the US cut. This morning’s USDA Export Sales report tallied old crop soybean sales at 132,163 MT for the week of 7/4. That was a 9-week low and down 16.7% yr/yr. New crop sales totaled 129,500 MT for that week.

JUL 19 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.99, up 4 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $9.05, up 4 3/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.17 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal closed at $311.60, up $2.50,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.07, up $0.10

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures posted double digit gains in the nearby contracts on Thursday. As we switch to new crop wheat on the USDA balance sheets, USDA cut 72 mbu from their carryout projection to 1 bbu. That was helped by a known 30 mbu smaller carry-in and an increase to expected feed & residual and exports. Production was pegged at 1.921 bbu, up 18 mbu from June. HRW was estimated at 804.5, SRW at 259.2 mbu, and other spring at 572.2 mbu. Overall wheat yield was raised by 1.3 to 50 bpa, with winter wheat up the same amount to 51.8 bpa. World wheat ending stocks for 19/20 was trimmed by 7.88 MMT to 286.46 MMT. There were cuts for several major producing countries, specifically Russia (-3.8 to 74.2 MMT), Australia (-1.5 to 21 MMT), and EU (-2.5 to 151.3 MMT). US all wheat export sales during the week of July 4 were tallied at 284,370 MT, more than double the same week last year at slightly above the week prior.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/2, up 16 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.61 1/2, up 20 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.41 1/4, up 12 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures closed Thursday with most contracts firm to 35 cents higher. Feeder cattle futures were up 27.5 to 60 cents higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up $3.50 @ $139.32 on July 10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were slightly lower again on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 65 cents at $213.77 with Select boxes 10 cents lower @ $190.79. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 478,000 head. That was 2,000 head above the same week last year. USDA reported a few $182-185 sales in the beef and $114-115 live in the North on Thursday. Beef export sales for the July 4 week were 21,458 MT, with Shipments of 14,912 MT. USDA showed a 75 million lb reduction to 2019 US beef production to 27.129 billion lbs, with most of that loss in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Production for 2020 was left UNCH at 27.42 billion lbs.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $107.875, up $0.250,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $109.325, up $0.350,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.775, up $0.300,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.625, up $0.275

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.275, up $0.425

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.425, up $0.600

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures saw triple digit losses in most contracts with soon to expire July (Monday) down 15 cents. US pork production was raised 360 million lbs for 2019 by USDA estimates to 27.648 million lbs, with 140 million of that jump in the 4th quarter alone. Estimated production for 2020 was raised 185 million lbs to 28.41 billion. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 48 cents from the previous day @ $70.77 on July 9. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 57 cents in the Thursday PM report at $72.17. The belly was the only primal reported higher, up $7.17. The national average base hog price was up 28 cents on Thursday at $67.82. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 1.914 million head through Thursday. That was 99,000 head larger than same week last year. The weekly Export Sales report showed just 11,253 MT of pork sales in the week of July 4, with 76 MT for China. Shipments were still decent, at 25,090 MT, with 7,953 MT headed to China.

JUL 19 Hogs closed at $71.600, down $0.150,

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $79.175, down $2.550

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $71.600, down $1.650

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures closed Thursday with most nearby contracts 52 to 89 points in the red. The monthly USDA report this morning showed old crop cotton ending stocks up 350,000 bales from June at 5 million bales, with a reduction to both domestic usage and exports. The new crop balance sheet saw a similar increase, mainly from the larger carryin, up 300,000 bales to 6.7 million bales. World stocks saw a 1.74 million bale jump to 79.27 million bales for old crop, with new crop up 3.16 million to 80.42 million bales. All upland cotton export sales in the week that ended on July 4 were tallied at 53,406 RB for old crop, with China cancelling 10,041 RB. New crop bookings were shown at just 38,447 RB, a 12-week low. Total sales were down 75.38% from the same week a year ago. Shipments were at 333,212 RB, with just 17,924 RB to China. The Cotlook A index for July 10 was down 235 points from the previous day at 74.30 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb, and will be updated later today.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 63.02, down 52 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.11, down 71 points

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 64.23, down 83 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.2, down 89 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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