Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures posted sharp 7 to 12 1/2 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday. The monthly WASDE report saw a 100 mbu jump to old crop US carryout at 2.195 bbu, mainly due to a reduction to exports. To the surprise of some, USDA actually slashed their 2019 US corn production number by 1.350 billion to 13.680 bbu. That was mainly driven by a 10 bpa drop to projected yield at 166 bpa, with planted acreage down 3 million acres to 89.8 million. That caused 19/20 ending stocks to drop 810 mbu to 1.675 bbu. On the world side, USDA gave Brazil 18/19 corn production another boost, up 1 to 101 MMT, while CONAB increased their number by 1.76 to 97.01 MMT. USDA’s old crop world stocks projection was down just 0.56 to 325.38 MMT, while new crop was shifted 24.19 MMT lower at 290.52 MMT.

Jul 19 Corn closed at $4.27 3/4, up 12 cents,

Sep 19 Corn closed at $4.36 1/4, up 12 1/4 cents,

Dec 19 Corn closed at $4.47, up 12 1/2 cents

Mar 20 Corn closed at $4.55 1/2, up 12 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures saw fractional to 2 cent gains in most contracts at Tuesday’s close. Spillover in corn lent a supportive hand. Soymeal was up $1/ton, with bean oil 16 points lower. On Tuesday morning, USDA made a 75 mbu revision to their old crop US carryout at 1.07 bbu, with the increase coming from a reduction to projected exports. That also translated to the same jump in 2019/20 ending stocks at 1.045 bbu, as USDA left the rest of the 19/20 S&D table alone. The WAOB left the Brazil and Argentine production estimates at 117 MMT and 56 MMT respectively, while CONAB estimates released this morning showed Brazil at 114.84 MMT, a 0.54 MMT increase from last month. USDA world soybean ending stocks were trimmed by 0.38 to 112.80 MMT for 18/19, with new crop also down 0.43 to 112.66 MMT.

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $8.59 1/4, up 3/4 cent,

Aug 19 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/4, up 1 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $8.73 1/4, up 1 cent,

Jan 20 Soybeans closed at $9.00 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybean Meal closed at $314.40, up $1.00,

Jul 19 Soybean Oil closed at $27.22, down $0.16

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures ended the Tuesday session with most MPLS contracts firm to 3 cents higher, and winter wheat contracts up 3 to 10 1/2 cents led by CBT. Strength in corn was supportive, as the KC wheat-corn spread has narrowed to 29 3/4 cents. The CBT-KC spread is now at a huge 60 1/2 cent premium to SRW. The monthly S&D update from USDA showed old crop wheat ending stocks for US down 25 mbu to 1.102 bbu, on an increase to exports. USDA also added 6 mbu to the US wheat production number at 1.903 bbu, mainly from an addition to winter wheat. Lower carryover and a 50 mbu jump in feed and residual caused 19/20 carryout to drop 69 mbu to 1.072 bbu. On the world side, USDA raised old crop carryout by 1.59 to 276.57 MMT, as projected Russian exports were cut 1 MMT. New crop world stocks were up 1.33 MMT to 294.34 MMT. Egypt’s GASC purchased a total of 120,000 MT of wheat in their tender, with 60,000 MT purchased from each Romania and Russia. There were no US offers as US FOB prices are not currently competitive.

Jul 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, up 10 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.57 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.69 1/2, up 1 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures closed Tuesday with most contracts 50 cents to $1.025 higher. Feeder cattle futures were down 22.5 cents to $1.70 on pressure from double digit gains in corn. The CME feeder cattle index was up 65 cents to $132.91 on June 10. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 73 cents at $222.39 with Select boxes 54 cents lower @ $208.25. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter through Tuesday @ 243,000 head. That is 7,000 head larger than the same day last year and up 2,000 from last week. USDA trimmed 2019 beef production by 65 million pounds to 22.204 billion, with the reduction mainly in the fourth quarter.

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $110.675, up $0.975,

Aug 19 Cattle closed at $106.825, up $0.525,

Oct 19 Cattle closed at $107.850, up $0.700,

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.125, down $1.700

Sep 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.600, down $1.125

Oct 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $138.975, down $0.775

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures settled with $1.375 to $2.95 losses on Tuesday, with soon to expire June down 20 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 35 cents from the previous day @ $79.95 on June 7. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 30cents on Tuesday afternoon at $83.76. The national average base hog was up 60 cents at $75.30 per hundred pounds. This week’s estimated FI hog slaughter through Tuesday was 949,000 head. That is 5,000 head above last week and 58,000 head larger than the same week last year. On Tuesday morning, USDA trimmed 2019 pork production by 35 million pounds to 27.288 billion with the main reduction in the second and third quarters. They also increased expected 2019 exports by 220 million pounds to 6.466 billion.

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $79.075, down $0.200,

Jul 19 Hogs closed at $84.375, down $1.825

Aug 19 Hogs closed at $82.975, down $1.875

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were down 34 to 53 points in the front months on Tuesday. The monthly S&D report showed no changes to the cotton table, with old crop carryout left at 4.65 million bales and new crop at 6.4 million bales. For the world numbers, USDA raise old crop by 1.06 million bales to 77.53, with New crop stocks up 1.57 at 77.26 million bales. USDA raised old crop Chinese imports by 250,000 bales but cut consumption by 500,000 bales to 40 million. The Cotlook A index for June 10 was down 300 points from the previous day to 76.35 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) from USDA is now 61.51 cents/lb through Thursday.

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 65.650, down 34 points,

Oct 19 Cotton closed at 65.460, down 41 points

Dec 19 Cotton closed at 65.040, down 53 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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