Morning Call: Optimism a resolution in the U.S.-China trade rift is near fuels a global stock rally; Dec E-mini S&Ps up +0.77% at a 1-1/2 week high.
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 ESZ18 - S&P 500 E-Mini
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ESZ182,654.75+14.75+0.56%
DXY0096.679-0.157-0.16%
ZNZ18119-040-0-070-0.18%
GCZ181,223.4+2.2+0.18%
SIZ1814.400+0.131+0.92%
HGZ182.7830+0.0165+0.60%
CLZ1856.76s+0.30+0.53%
RBZ181.5098+0.0139+0.93%
AAPL176.98-8.88-4.78%
KORS44.23-0.37-0.83%
WTW45.74-1.36-2.89%
SBUX67.18-0.73-1.07%
MET42.84-0.83-1.90%
OLED86.80-0.46-0.53%
KHC50.94-0.95-1.83%
ACIA42.43-0.08-0.19%
SHAK50.56+0.34+0.68%
CARB26.33+0.42+1.62%
TSRO42.48+5.65+15.34%
SYMC21.61-0.65-2.92%
CATM30.30-1.88-5.84%
GPRO5.24-0.16-2.96%

Overnight Markets and News

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ18 +0.82%) this morning are up +0.77% and European stocks are up +1.14%, both at 1-1/2 week highs, on optimism the trade conflict between the U.S. and China will soon be resolved. President Trump reportedly asked key cabinet secretaries to draw up a draft to signal a ceasefire in the trade conflict with China and that President Trump wants to reach an agreement on trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping when both leaders meet at the G-20 summit in Argentina later this month. Stocks gains were limited as Apple fell nearly 6% in pre-market trading after it forecast weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue growth. The rally in equities undercut demand for government debt as the 10-year German bund yield rose to a 1-week high of 0.438% and the 10-year T-note yield climbed to 1-1/2 week high of 3.170%. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +2.56%, Hong Kong +4.21%, China +2.70%, Taiwan +0.63%, Australia +0.14%, Singapore +1.81%, South Korea +3.65%, India +1.68%. Asian markets rallied sharply on the prospects for a resolution to the U.S.-China trade conflict as China's Shanghai Composite climbed to a 3-week high and Japan's Nikkei Stock Index rose to a 1-1/2 week high. The yuan also rallied and climbed to a 5-week high against the dollar.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) is down -0.25% at a 1-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.36%) is up +0.40% at a 1-week high. USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.14%) is up +0.11.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ18 -0-055) are down -6 ticks at a 1-week low.

The Eurozone Oct Markit manufacturing PMI was revised downward to 52.0 from the previously reported 52.1, the slowest pace of expansion in 2-years.

The German Sep import price index rose +0.4% m/m and +4.4% y/y, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m and +4.5% y/y.

The UK Oct Markit/CIPS construction PMI unexpectedly rose +1.1 to 53.2, stronger than expectations of -0.1 to 52.0.

U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Oct non-farm payrolls (expected +200,000, Sep +134,000) and Oct unemployment rate (expected unch at 3.7%, Sep -0.2 to 3.7%), (2) Oct avg hourly earnings (expected +0.2% m/m and +3.1% y/y, Sep +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y), (3) Sep trade balance (expected -$53.6 billion, Aug -$53.2 billion), (4) Sep factory orders (expected +0.5% m/m, Aug +2.3% and +0.1% ex transportation).

Notable S&P 500 earnings reports today include: Berkshire Hathaway (consensus $3,827), AbbVie (2.02), Exxon (1.22), Chevron (2.06).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences during the remainder of this week: Data Center Summit on Fri.

Market Comments

Dec S&P 500 E-minis (ESZ18 +0.82%) this morning are up +21.00 points (+0.77%) at a 1-1/2 wek high. Thursday's closes: S&P 500 +1.06%, Dow Jones +1.06%, Nasdaq 100 +1.47%. The S&P 500 on Thursday rallied to a 1-week high and closed higher on reduced trade concerns after President Trump tweeted that progress has been made in trade negotiations with China. Stocks were also boosted by signs of strength in the U.S. labor market after weekly continuing unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -7,000 to a 45-1/4 year low of 1.631 million, stronger than expectations of +4,000 to 1.640 million. Stocks were undercut by the -2.1 point decline in the Oct ISM manufacturing PMI to 57.7, weaker than expectations of -0.8 to 59.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.

Dec 10-year T-notes (ZNZ18 -0-055) this morning are down -6 ticks at a 1-week low. Thursday's closes: TYZ8 +4.50, FVZ8 +3.25. Dec 10-year T-notes on Thursday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep ISM manufacturing index that fell to a 6-month low, which was dovish for Fed policy. T-note prices were also supported by the slump in crude oil prices to a 6-1/2 month low, which undercuts inflation expectations.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.26%) this morning is down -0.244 (-0.25%) at a 1-week low, EUR/USD (^EURUSD +0.36%) is up +0.0046 (+0.40%) at a 1-week high, and USD/JPY (^USDJPY +0.14%) is up +0.12 (+0.11%). Thursday's closes: Dollar Index -0.850 (-0.88%), EUR/USD +0.0096 (+0.85%), USD/JPY -0.22 (-0.19%). The dollar index on Thursday fell to 1-week low and closed lower on the weaker-than-expected U.S. Sep ISM manufacturing index, which was dovish for Fed policy. There was also strength in GBP/USD which rallied to a 1-week high on reduced Brexit concerns after UK's lead negotiator Raab said "a great deal of progress" has been made in recent weeks and predicted that a deal on Brexit will be made by November 21.

Metals prices this morning are mixed with Dec gold (GCZ18 -0.14%) -1.3 (-0.10%), Dec silver (SIZ18 +0.22%) +0.023 (+0.16%), and Dec copper (HGZ18 +2.00%) +0.050 (+1.82%). Thursday's closes: Dec gold +23.6 (+1.94%), Dec silver +0.495 (+3.47%), Dec copper +0.0625 (+2.35%). Metals on Thursday closed higher on the slide in the dollar index to a 1-week low and the larger-than-expected decline in in the U.S. Oct ISM manufacturing PMI to a 6-month low, which was dovish for Fed policy. Copper was supported by tight copper supplies after LME copper inventories fell by -950 MT to a 10-1/4 year low of 136,675 MT.

Dec WTI crude oil prices (CLZ18 -0.14%) this morning are down -2 cents (-0.03%) and Dec gasoline (RBZ18 +0.48%) is +0.90 (+0.52%). Thursday's closes: Dec crude oil -1.62 (-2.48%), Dec gasoline -2.49 (-1.99%). Dec crude oil and gasoline on Thursday closed lower with Dec crude at a 6-1/2 month low and Dec gasoline at a 7-1/2 month low. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rise in OPEC Oct crude production by +430,000 bpd to a 2-year high of 33.33 million bpd and by the rise in Russian oil production from Oct 1 through Oct 30 to a record 11.41 million bpd. Crude oil prices were also undercut by negative carry-over from Wednesday's EIA data showing that U.S. crude production the week ended Oct 26 rose to a record 11.2 million bpd.

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Apple (AAPL +1.54%) is down nearly 6% in pre-market trading after it forecast Q1 revenue of $89 billion to $93 billion, the midpoint below consensus of $92.7 billion, and then said it will stop unit sales data for iPhones, iPads and Mac computers.

Michael Kors Holdings Ltd Facebook (KORS +3.56%) was upgraded to 'Buy' from 'Neutral' at UBS with a price target of $80.

Weight Watchers International (WTW +3.62%) tumbled 13% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $365.8 million, weaker than consensus of $379.5 million.

Starbucks (SBUX +0.62%) jumped over 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q4 comparable sales rose +3.0%, better than consensus of +2.2%.

MetLife (MET +1.82%) rose nearly 4% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.38, stronger than consensus of $1.26.

Universal Display (OLED +5.40%) plunged more than 20% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $77.6 million, below consensus of $91.4 million, and then forecast full-year revenue of $240 million to $250 million, well below consensus of $298.8 million.

Kraft Heinz (KHC +2.24%) dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 78 cents, below consensus of 81 cents.

Acacia Communications (ACIA +5.83%) jumped 11% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, well above consensus of 17 cents, and then forecast Q4 adjusted EPS of 20 cents to 40 cents, the midpoint above consensus of 32 cents.

Shake Shack (SHAK +3.61%) fell more than 5% in after-hours trading after it said Q3 comparable sales unexpectedly fell -0.7%, weaker than consensus of a +0.9% increase.

Carbonite (CARB +3.80%) tumbled 12% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted revenue of $79.1 million, less than consensus of $80.3 million, and then cut its forecast for year business bookings to $205 million-$210 million from a prior view of $223.8 million-$234.8 million.

Tesaro (TSRO +10.39%) rallied 5% in after-hours trading after it forecast full-year net revenue of $258 million to $265 million, the midpoint higher than consensus of $258.5 million

Symantec (SYMC +3.20%) climbed nearly 6% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 adjusted EPS of 42 cents, higher than consensus of 33 cents, and then forecast full-year adjusted EPS of $1.47 to $1.57, the midpoint above consensus of $1.51.

Cardtronics PLC (CATM +2.21%) jumped 7% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 revenue of $340.2 million, better than consensus of $319.2 million, and then forecast full-year revenue of $1.31 billion to $1.34 billion, higher than consensus of $1.30 billion.

GoPro (GPRO +9.28%) dropped more than 8% in after-hours trading after it reported Q3 adjusted gross margin of 33.2%, below consensus of 34.1%.