AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market 5 to 7 Cents Lower

Corn futures are trading 5 to 7 cents lower this morning. They closed the Monday session with most nearby contracts 10 to 13 1/4 cents lower, in most cases erasing Friday’s gain. Moderation in the US weather forecasts is the excuse for the selling. The Export Inspections report indicated that 676,485 MT of corn was shipped in the week ending July 11. That was down 6.23% from last week and just above half of what was inspected for the same week last year. NASS reported that 17% of the US corn crop was silking as of July 14, vs. the 5-year average of 42%. They also reported conditions up 1% at 58% gd/ex, which converts to a 1-point rise on the Brugler500 index to 353. That is still the lowest reading for week 28 since the drought-stricken year of 2012.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market Extends Monday Losses Overnight

Soybean futures are 9 to 11 cents lower after 10 to 11 1/2 cent losses in the front months on Monday. Long liquidation was the theme yesterday with preliminary open interest dropping 10,398 contracts. August soybean meal was down $3.20/ton, with soy oil 3 points lower. US Export Inspections were 854,373 MT for the week ending on July 11. That was a 12.17% jump from the previous week and 34% above the same week last year. Of that total 460,302 MT was headed to China. The NOPA report indicated members crushed just 148.843 mbu. in June. That was down 3.85% from May and a 6.53% drop from last June. Soy oil stocks came in just above the average trade estimate at 1.535 billion lb. The weekly USDA Crop Progress report indicated 95% of the crop emerged, with 22% in the blooming stage (49% average). Crop conditions ended up seeing a 1% improvement to 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 up 2 points to 347. That’s 20 points higher than the same week in 1993.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Mixed, with Spring Wheat Higher

Wheat futures are showing 3 to 4 cents losses in the KC and Chicago contracts this morning. MPLS spring wheat is fractionally higher. They settled Monday with 10 to 18 1/4 cent losses across the three exchanges. Monday afternoon NASS reported that 57% of the winter wheat crop was harvested, up only 10% from last week and 14% below the average pace. With the dry weather more had been expected. Spring wheat was 78% headed, with conditions down 2% to 76% gd/ex and 1 point lower on the Brugler500 to 382. Weekly wheat shipments were reported at 315,373 MT for the week of July 11 in USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was down 34.45% from the same week in 2018.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News Holds Ground on Firmer Cash

Live cattle futures were mixed on Monday, with August up a tick. Feeder cattle futures were a nickel to 12.5 cents higher in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index was down 62 cents @ $140.46 on July 12. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 47 cents at $213.27 with Select boxes 39 cents lower @ $189.21. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 117,000 head for Monday. That was 3,000 head below the previous week and 1,000 larger than the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market Supported by China Herd Shrinkage

Lean Hog futures were mixed at Monday’s close, with July expiring at $70.775 and deferred contracts higher. The cash market indicators were a little firmer. China's hog herd is officially 15% smaller, although other Chinese data suggests a much larger decline from ASF. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 8 cents from the previous day @ $70.73 on July 11. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.25 in the Monday PM report at $72.90. The national average base hog price was up 37 cents at $68.45. The weekly CME Fresh Bacon Index was down 60 cents from the week prior at 132.08 on July 12. Estimated FI hog slaughter for Monday was 410,000 head. That was down 69,000 head from last week due to plant down time and 19,000 head below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton 36 to 65 Lower to Start Tuesday

Cotton futures are trading 36 to 65 points lower on Turnaround Tuesday selling this morning. They posted 106 to 126 point gains in most contracts on Monday, after setting life of contract lows last week. After the close, NASS showed 60% of the US cotton crop was squared (69% avg) and 20% of the acres were setting bolls (25% avg) as of Sunday. Condition ratings were up 2% to 56% gd/ex and saw a 7 point jump on the Brugler500 index at 347, mainly from fewer poor/very poor ratings. Any damage from TS Barry is likely to show up in next week’s report due to the timing. The Cotlook A index for July 12 was down 75 points from the previous day at 74.05 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 58.05 cents/lb through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.
Omaha, NE 68022
P: 402-697-3623
F: 402-289-2353