AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed Thursday with gains of 5 to 8 1/2 cents in most contacts, as Dec finished over the $4 mark. After last week’s poor performance, old crop sales of 446,489 MT were indicated in this morning’s Export Sales report. That exceeded most expectations, as it was nearly 3 times above last week and 35.16% larger than this time last year. Japan was the lead buyer, as they purchased 263,100 MT, with Mexico right behind at 209,000 MT. There were also 212,070 MT of new crop sales reported 24.17% behind last week and 58.11% lower than a year ago. Weekly shipments picked back up to 1.042 MMT, as they were 18.3% larger wk/wk but still 16.04% lower yr/yr. The weather is also literally a HOT topic. On Thursday, China sold 921,782 MT of 1.574 MMT of 2013 and 2014 corn offered at an auction of state reserves.

Sep 17 Corn closed at $3.91, up 8 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn closed at $4.04 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $4.15 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents

May 18 Corn closed at $4.20, up 7 3/4 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures posted 11 1/2 to 14 1/2 cent gains on Thursday. Front month soy meal was up $3.90/ton, with Aug 17 soy oil 51 points higher. This morning’s Export Sales report showed old crop sales outperforming analysts estimates at 409,558 MT. This was 79.6% larger than last week and 35.4% above the same week last year. New crop sales came in at 1.523MMT, with 1.3 MMT of that from China, following the trade agreement from last week. Exports for the week of July 13 were reported at 357,968 MT, down 12.1% from a week ago and 3.6% from last year. Total soy meal sales came in at 117,287 MT, with shipments of 154,998 MT. Soy oil sales for 16/17 were at 25,393 MT, as exports totaled 27,634 MT.

Aug 17 Soybeans closed at $10.13 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans closed at $10.18 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans closed at $10.27, up 14 1/2 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/4, up 13 1/4 cents,

Aug 17 Soybean Meal closed at $330.50, up $3.90,

Aug 17 Soybean Oil closed at $33.97, up $0.51

Wheat

Wheat futures settled Thursday with gains of 2 to 4 cents in most contracts. The USDA announced 669,520 MT for 17/18 all wheat export sales during the week of July 13, well above expectations. That was 87.2% larger than the previous week and 40.1% above last year, as well as a MY high excluding carryover from 16/17. Weekly all wheat shipments ran 550,169 MT, a 15.7% jump over last week and 52.6% larger than last year. Reports of ND spring wheat acres being turned to livestock feed are running a wide range of estimates, from 5%-30% of planted acreage. Iraq is seeking 50,000 MT of wheat, with US, Canada and Australia listed as accepted origins.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.05 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.03 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.78, up 2 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures finished the day with losses of 80 cents to $1.80 in most contracts. Feeder cattle futures followed with losses of $2.05 to $2.375, with pressure coming from corn. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.94 on July 19 to $147.22. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with choice boxes down 8 cents at $207.65. Select was up 9 cents, with an average of $195.58. Week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter was 465,000 head through Thursday, 10,000 below last week and 16,000 above the same week last year. There were a few cash sales of $118 Thursday, even with yesterday. Beef export sales came in at 12,368 MT in this morning’s USDA report, down 1 from last week and 13.9% from last year. Shipments were reported at 14,756 MT.

Aug 17 Cattle closed at $115.875, down $1.400,

Oct 17 Cattle closed at $117.075, down $1.800,

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $118.100, down $1.575,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.275, down $2.225

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.325, down $2.125

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.850, down $2.100

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended Thursday with mixed trade, as Aug was down $1.475. The CME Lean Hog Index for 7/18 was 6 cents lower than the previous day at $92.40. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 67 cents lower in the Thursday afternoon report, with a weighted average of $104.02. The loin and belly were both higher. The national base hog carcass price was 51 cents lower with a weighted average of $84.28 in this afternoon’s report. FI hog slaughter through Thursday was estimated at 1,738,000 head, 16,000 head fewer than last week but 38,000 more than the same week in 2016. The USDA reported pork 2017 pork export sales of 11,738 MT for the week of July 13, 21.2% larger than the previous week and 4.2% above a year ago. Export shipments were reported at 18,110 MT. well above last week but 10.1% behind last week.

Aug 17 Hogs closed at $81.100, down $1.475,

Oct 17 Hogs closed at $67.850, down $0.950

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $62.950, unch,

Cotton

Cotton futures were 54 to 87 points higher on the day, as the US dollar was ….. points lower. The Cotlook A index for July 19 was at 84.20 cents/lb, up 50 points from the previous day. With just over 2 reporting weeks left in the marketing year, all upland cotton export sales picked up over last week at 27,216 RB for old crop, with 166,210 RB sold for new crop. Total sales were 16.79% larger than a week ago but 25.73% lower than last year. Export shipments were shown at 280,526 RB, 43.65% above the previous week and 50.8% larger than this time last year. The new AWP good tomorrow through next Thursday was updated to 64.87 cents/lb, down 60 points. China sold 25,200 MT of the 30,100 MT of cotton offered at Thursday’s auction of state reserves.

Oct 17 Cotton closed at 69.550, up 79 points,

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 68.980, up 87 points

May 18 Cotton closed at 69.110, up 75 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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