AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn futures are fractionally lower after ending Wednesday with most contracts 2 to 3 cents higher. Wednesday morning’s EIA report showed ethanol production for the week that ended 4/13 at 1.009 million barrels per day, the lowest implied corn use since the first week of the year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 21.344 million barrels, a 502,000 barrel drop from the previous week. Old crop corn export sales are expected to total 0.7-1.2 MMT in Thursday’s Export Sales report, with new crop at 0-200,000 MT. Celeres expects the Brazilian corn crop to hit 91.6 MMT in 17/18, compared to the current USDA number of 92 MMT.


Soybean futures are fractionally higher this morning ahead of the weekly USDA Export Sales report release. They ended Wednesday with most nearby contracts 2 to 4 1/4 cents lower and back months higher. Soy meal was $4.50/ton lower, with front month soy oil up 24 points. Analysts are expecting the USDA to show 0.9-1.4 MMT in old crop soybean sales this morning, with 500,000-800,000 MT expected for new crop sales. Soy meal is seen at 150,000-400,000 MT, with 12,000-34,000 MT for soybean oil. The Brazilian soybean crop is estimated at 115.7 MMT by analysts with Celeres vs. the USDA’s 115 MMT.


Wheat futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher in the SRW and HRS futures this morning. KC HRW is up a stronger 4 to 5 cents. They settled with 8 to 9 cent gains in the CBT and KC contracts yesterday, with MPLS up 3 to 5 1/2 cents. Forecasts of rain for later this week in the Southern Plains are still wide spread, but the total area and amounts have backed off slightly. All wheat export sales for old crop are expected to total 100,000-350,000 MT in this morning’s USDA report, with the average trade guess for new crop at 0-200,000 MT. Taiwan’s tender for 92,975 MT of US wheat closes today. The USDA ag attach in Australia estimates that the 18/19 crop there will rise to 24 MMT, with Canada seen at 29.9 MMT.


Live cattle futures finished Wednesday with 37.5 to 92.5 cent gains. Feeder cattle futures were steady to $1.05 higher on Wednesday. The CME feeder cattle index was up 15 cents on April 17 at $137.90. Wholesale boxed beef values were lower on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were 49 cents lower at $211.64, with Select boxes down $1.01 at $198.57. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was 355,000 head through Wednesday. That is 1,000 below the previous week but up 16,000 head from the same week in 2017. The FCE online auction showed sales on 499 head out of 3,220 offered. The sales of 1-17 day delivery were at $120, with 1-9 day delivery at $122. Analysts are expecting to see March placements 9.1% lower than last year in Friday’s COF report, due to larger placements over the past few months.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures posted gains of 40 cents to $1.95 on Wednesday with help from higher cash values. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 49 cents from the previous day to $54.02. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 25 cents at $68.46 yesterday afternoon, with ham and belly reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was $1.92 higher at $54.19 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter of 1.394 million head through Wednesday. That was up 27,000 head from last week.


Cotton futures are mixed this morning, 12 lower to 15 higher. They were 2 to 39 points lower in most contracts on Wednesday. Rain chances are still high for northern Texas for this weekend. The Cotlook A index was down 20 points from the previous day at 92.45 cents/lb. Cash sales of 7,514 bales were reported on the Seam at an average price of 67.27 cents/lb on Tuesday. The USDA Adjusted World Price (AWP) currently at 74.32 cents/lb will be updated later today.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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